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Yemen's Houthi rebels have launched a ballistic missile toward the Saudi capital, Riyadh, just days after the United States signaled it would not join any Saudi-led military campaign against the group. Following Washington's decision, Riyadh has sought to deepen security cooperation with countries including the United Kingdom, France, Pakistan and Egypt. But Middle East analyst Giorgio Cafiero tells DW's David Levitz that he thinks Saudi Arabia will ultimately have to make concessions to the Houthis to guarantee stability.
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<br>1. The Current Crisis: Encirclement and Infrastructure Collapse
<br> Pipeline Attacks: On September 11, Saudi Arabia’s critical east-west oil pipeline (spanning 1,200 km and carrying 4–5 million barrels per day, or 4–5% of global supply) was attacked at eight different locations, forcing a preventive shutdown. This severed Saudi Arabia’s primary alternative export route in case the Strait of Hormuz is blocked.
<br> Houthi Advances: Houthi forces have seized total control of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait (a chokepoint for 12% of global trade) by capturing the Hanish Islands. They have also overrun 5,400 square kilometers of the Yemeni Red Sea coast and are cutting off the last government-held supply routes to Taiz.
<br> Strategic Encirclement: Saudi Arabia is effectively trapped in a "pocket": Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz to the north, the Houthis control the Bab el-Mandeb to the south, its own infrastructure is compromised, and its proxy government in Yemen is on the verge of collapse.<br>
<br>2. The Failure of Alliances
<br> The United States’ Refusal: Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman reportedly requested US military intervention against the Houthis. The request was flatly rejected by Donald Trump, who directed the US military to focus solely on Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, avoiding new fronts. There are three reasons for this:
<br> 1.Economic Asymmetry: The US cannot afford a war where multi-million-dollar interceptors are used against cheap Houthi drones.
<br> 2. Shifting Priorities: US focus has moved to domestic issues, elections, Ukraine, and the Asia-Pacific, downgrading the Middle East's strategic importance.
<br> 3. Strategic Harvesting: The US is now a top oil exporter. Middle Eastern chaos drives up oil prices, directly benefiting US shale producers and increasing American leverage over Europe. The US prefers "controllable chaos" over genuine regional peace.<br>
<br> Pakistan’s Refusal: Despite the August 7 "Mecca Mutual Defense Agreement" (signed by Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan), Pakistan declined to intervene. This refusal is both shrewd and realistic: Pakistan faces its own economic crises and border security issues with Afghanistan. Furthermore, Pakistan recognizes that intervening in Yemen’s complex terrain is a proven, costly quagmire, and it will not send troops to die without massive financial compensation.<br>
<br>3. The Strategic Pivot to Iran
<br> Negotiating for Survival: With no other options, Saudi Arabia has initiated talks with Iran. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi and Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal have discussed managing the Strait of Hormuz and achieving regional stability.
<br> The Role of Oman: A meeting of Gulf foreign ministers with Iran is planned for September 14 in Salalah, Oman. Oman, which previously facilitated the 2023 China-brokered Saudi-Iran rapprochement, is providing the crucial diplomatic channel for this new "toll fee" negotiation.
<br> Iran’s Pragmatism: Iran views the US, not Saudi Arabia, as its primary adversary. Tehran understands that a stable, cooperative Saudi Arabia is more beneficial than a collapsed one, and is open to a transactional arrangement (e.g., charging for safe passage) rather than seeking total destruction.<br>
<br>4. Three Core Lessons for the World
<br>Saudi Arabia’s predicament offers three blood-soaked lessons in international relations:
<br> 1. The US is Fundamentally Unreliable: From Afghanistan to Ukraine to Saudi Arabia, the US treats security commitments as a business transaction. Allies pay for equipment, but the US will not sacrifice its own blood or treasure to defend them.
<br> 2. US Maritime Hegemony is in Decline: The fact that Iran and the Houthis can effectively choke off the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait proves that the US can no longer guarantee the security of global maritime chokepoints. Regional issues must ultimately be solved by regional actors.
<br> 3. Beware of Empty Promises: Saudi Arabia’s current crisis stems from a lack of strategic patience. It was lured into a conflict by vague US promises of nuclear energy cooperation, only to be used as a pawn. Promises from great powers, especially the US, must be heavily discounted.<br>
<br>Final Takeaway
<br>The overarching message is that "mountains will crumble if you lean on them, and people will flee if you rely on them." True national security and leverage in great power competition cannot be outsourced to foreign allies; they must be built on a nation's own strength, strategic clarity, and self-reliance.<br>------