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The Cook Political Report's Amy Walter joins CNN’s Dana Bash as Cook shifts 18 House contests towards Democrats and predicts the party could pick up nine to 19 …
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<br> In short, recognizing two states—Palestine and Israel—is the necessary path to resolving this issue.
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<br>Alright, I watched the whole thing. Here's my take.
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<br>The Cook Political Report just moved 18 House races toward the Democrats. That's not a poll. That's the pros. These are the people who don't get excited. They count. And they're counting Republicans out in districts Trump won by double digits.
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<br>Amy Walter lays it out. Republicans spent $200 million in key House races trying to hold the line. Two hundred million. And the needle didn't just not move — it moved the other way. You can't buy your way out of a bad environment. You can only rent time until it buries you.
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<br>And here's the part that makes me laugh. Republicans gerrymandered the hell out of this cycle. Florida, Texas, Ohio, North Carolina. They redrew maps to lock in safe seats. And those safe seats are now toss-ups or leaning Democrat. You built a fortress and the foundation sank. That's not bad luck. That's the tide.
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<br>Pennsylvania's the tell. Scott Perry, Ryan McKenzie. These are the races the Democrats weren't supposed to win. They're now in play. And in Western Michigan, Bill Huizenga's "safe" seat just became a coin flip. The environment is so bad for Republicans that even the seats they designed to keep are sliding.
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<br>Now, the funny part. The Democrats are arguing about how greedy to be. One side says play it safe, spend on the toss-ups. The other says go deep into Trump country and run up the score. That's the argument you have when you're winning. It's a good problem. But it's also the argument that loses elections if you get it wrong. You can't spread yourself thin and expect to hold a majority. Pick the seats you can win and win them.
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<br>Trump's got a $400 million war chest and it doesn't matter. Because the problem isn't money. It's him. He's the most unpopular president at this point in his term since... well, since the last time he was this unpopular. The country has Trump fatigue and the Republicans are the ones holding the bag.
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<br>Twenty-five days out. Cook says Democrats gain 9 to 19 seats. That's enough. And the GOP knows it. You can smell the flop sweat through the screen.
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<br>Check the stove. Keep the loop open. And if you're a Republican in a swing district, start writing your concession speech now.
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<br>Ed's out. 🌹
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<br>The findings, from The Cook Political Report on October 9, "Eighteen More House Race Ratings Move in Democrats’ Favor," show that five races that were previously rated as tossups now lean Democratic. Meanwhile, four other races that were previously listed as leaning Republican are now rated as tossups.<br><br>Cook now forecasts a Democratic net gain of nine to 19 House seats, producing a total of between 224 and 234.<br><br>Cook calculates that Democrats need to win only 20 percent of the Toss Ups to secure a majority, assuming every seat favoring them breaks their way.
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<br>That creates several possible routes to control of the chamber while forcing Republicans to defend districts that once appeared comparatively secure.