Brazil heads toward a likely runoff as US pressure looms: Analysis

Vinicius Rodrigues Vieira, associate professor of economics and international relations at the Armando Alvares Penteado Foundation, says Brazil's election is a very tight race between incumbent Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Flavio Bolsonaro, who is running on behalf of his father. A runoff on October 25 is the most likely outcome, he says.

Vieira says Lula's message of defending sovereignty against Donald Trump's tariffs and pressure on Supreme Court justices has not resonated as strongly as concerns over living costs and security, even though presidents have little power over public safety, which falls mostly to governors. He notes Flavio and his coalition are also tied to a corruption scandal involving a jailed banker.

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