New poll show Dems ahead in 5 of 7 critical Senate races

Democrats hold leads in five of the seven critical Senate races polled by The New York Times and Siena University as the 2026 midterm campaign comes to a close, with no clear leader in the other two races.

Should the results of these polls match the results in Tuesday’s election, Democratic victories in the four Republican-held states where they lead outside the margin of sampling error would be enough to flip control of the Senate, if Democrats were also to hold all of their currently held seats.

CNN's John Berman runs through the numbers at the magic wall and gets reaction from Democratic strategist Karen Finney and Republican strategist Neil Chatterjee. Also, CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten unpacks the new poling and whether Republicans are being underestimated.

0:00 Which Senate candidates are favored in the New York Times/Sienna University poll?
1:12 A look at how the poll results would change the Senate map if the Dem advantages hold up on election day
2:43 Harry Enten weighs in on the new poll
4:17 What if Republicans are underestimated in recent polling?
6:26 Democratic and Republican strategists react to the polling

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