Putin needs an excuse for another mass mobilization | William Dixon

On Friday, Russia’s state news agency RIA Novosti published and then quickly deleted a commentary suggesting that Lithuania could be the target of another supposedly “very short special military operation.” Is it simply propaganda and an intimidation tactic, or can these narratives tell us something about Moscow’s plans?

“One of the theories that’s been circulated among the intelligence agencies and security officials is that Vladimir Putin needs a justification for another mass mobilization.” William Dixon, Senior Associate Fellow with RUSI, told TVP World, adding that “the Baltic states (...) could be part of these false flag operations that could provide the justification for such an escalation and such military conscription in Russia.”

“However, Russia uses coercion, the threat of violence, as part of its hybrid warfare,” Dixon said, adding that further assessment is still required to establish whether the West is dealing with a real threat, or “just a continuation of the coercive tactics that we’ve seen from the Kremlin for a number of years.”

Join TVP World’s Sally Jastrzębska and her guest as they explore how Lithuania and other Baltic states are preparing for a potential crisis, what kind of collective response could deter Russian hybrid attacks without triggering a wider conflict, and whether renewed diplomatic efforts can make any progress toward ending the war in Ukraine.

Chapters:
00:00 - Russia’s possible escalation and hybrid warfare
02:37 - Potential mobilization and Baltic preparedness
03:32 - NATO cooperation and responses to Russian incursions
05:05 - Balancing deterrence and public reassurance
07:03 - Incremental peace efforts in Ukraine
08:39 - Prospects for direct talks and the G20
10:05 - Patriot missile licensing for Ukraine

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