Iran and Houthis gain strategic leverage as Gulf balance shifts, analyst says

Yemen's Houthis are advancing in the south and west, seizing territory and targeting Saudi cities and oil infrastructure, while Saudi Arabia launches air strikes across five regions. As the conflict escalates, questions are growing about the balance of power in the Gulf and the role of Iran and its allies.
Luciano Zaccara, an Iran and Gulf analyst and adjunct associate professor at Georgetown University in Qatar, told Al Jazeera that Iran and its allies are sending a message that regional security cannot be addressed without considering their role. He said they are demonstrating that they can control, or deny others control of, the two strategic straits — Bab al-Mandab and Hormuz. Zaccara said Iran and its allies are regaining strategic depth without controlling territory and that, so far, the strategy is working — not by guaranteeing a military victory, but by denying other actors control and transferring the costs to them. He said Saudi Arabia and the internationally backed Yemeni government have been trying for 11 years to defeat the Houthis and he sees no reason to believe this time will be different. While Saudi-backed forces are making some gains in the north, the Houthis control areas that are strategically more important and can threaten transit through Bab al-Mandab. On the shifting balance of power, Zaccara said military might alone is not enough to determine the rules of the game, with strategic depth, negotiation capability and the ability to pressure others at the negotiating table also crucial. He said GCC states are now more constrained, with Saudi Arabia under economic pressure as it cannot export as expected or use western routes to bypass the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Zaccara said the GCC is therefore likely to be increasingly interested in engaging directly with Iran to address these issues independently of the wider US-Iran conflict.

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