'Largest property downturn in 40 years' in sight, says property analyst | The Business | ABC NEWS

National house prices have fallen for a seventh consecutive month, with the speed of the decline in home values tracking at the fastest pace seen over the past 40 years, according to property research group Cotality. Its latest national Home Value Index (HVI) was down 1.2 per cent in October. The index shows the median national house price now stands at $884,855. Brisbane led the monthly falls, followed by Perth, Sydney, Adelaide, Melbourne, Canberra and the regions. Hobart and Darwin managed moderate gains. But prices nationally are still up 58 per cent on what they were 10 years ago.

Cotality head of research Gerard Burg expects prices to fall further as interest rates continues to rise: "We are already on track to see the largest downturn across the last 40 years. The previous record was 2017 through 2019, which stood at 8.2% across the combined capital cities. Now, at the moment, as of October, the downturn that we've seen over the past seven months is 8.1%, so it looks like we're easily going to push past that mark," he said.

Investor demand has also been waning because of the federal government's budget changes to property tax breaks.

Westpac chief executive Anthony Miller expects further falls in house prices. "We anticipate the peak to trough decline in house prices to be 11 per cent before recovering in the second half of next year, he said.

Markets are betting another interest rate rise on Melbourne Cup Day is all but certain. Experts say it could be well into next year before rate cuts are on the agenda.

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