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Early exit polls from Israel's election project 24 seats for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's right-wing Likud party and 22 for Gadi Eisenkot's centrist Yashar party. Itamar Ben-Gvir's far-right Otzma Yehudit and Bezalel Smotrich's Religious Zionism are each projected to win six seats, while the Palestinian-led Joint List could secure 11 seats and the United Arab List, or Ra'am, seven.
Marwan Bishara, Al Jazeera's senior political analyst, says that although Likud is projected to emerge as the largest party, the opposition bloc appears to have more seats than Netanyahu's governing coalition, creating a political paradox. He explains that President Isaac Herzog will have to consult political parties to determine who has the best chance of forming a government, rather than automatically choosing the leader of the largest party. Bishara stresses that the final results, including outstanding soldiers' votes, will be crucial, but says Netanyahu currently lacks a clear path to a parliamentary majority.
Bishara warns that Netanyahu should be prevented from launching another war against Iran or escalating military operations in Palestine to disrupt the political process, describing him as a lame-duck prime minister who should not make such consequential decisions. He argues that the election represents a referendum on Netanyahu and his far-right coalition, whose policies and military actions have generated widespread opposition across the region and beyond.
He identifies former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett as a potential kingmaker, explaining that his projected 12 seats could give Netanyahu a 62-seat majority if Bennett abandoned the opposition bloc. Bishara also highlights what he describes as historically high turnout among Palestinian citizens of Israel, estimated at 70 to 75 percent, which has complicated efforts by either major political bloc to form a governing coalition.
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#IsraelElection #IsraelElections2026 #Netanyahu #Likud #MarwanBishara #GadiEisenkot #NaftaliBennett #IsraeliPolitics #PalestinianVoters #Knesset
