NATO is lucky until Russian sabotage turns deadly | On the Record

In a special edition of On the Record from the Warsaw Security Forum, Adam Jasser speaks exclusively with Julianne Smith, former U.S. Permanent Representative to NATO, about the growing threat of Russian hybrid warfare, the Alliance’s deterrence strategy and the future of transatlantic relations.

With Russian drones entering NATO airspace and sabotage targeting critical infrastructure, Smith warns that NATO has been lucky so far to avoid catastrophic loss of life. But what happens if a Russian-linked operation kills civilians in Europe? Would that cross the threshold from hybrid warfare to a kinetic attack and trigger a debate over Article 5? And if NATO decides to respond, what might retaliation look like?

Smith also questions whether NATO should publicly rule out escalation, arguing that strategic ambiguity is essential to deterrence and that the Alliance should not reveal all its cards to Moscow. And as the U.S. midterm elections approach, she explains why the results may send a powerful political signal without fundamentally changing Washington’s foreign policy.

Even if Democrats gain control of Congress, Smith warns, expectations of an immediate shift in the Trump administration’s approach should remain low: ”President Trump will remain in the Oval Office, and Congress’s ability to constrain the
executive will be a key test,” says Smith.

Chapters:
00:00 - Intro
00:46 - NATO unveils its "Theory of Victory"
02:36 - Would the U.S. respond to an Article 5 violation?
07:20 - Is NATO really "ready"?
10:16 - The White House's position on Russia, NATO, and Europe
11:44 - The Graham sanctions and the lifting of sanctions on Russian diesel
12:41 - Will the U.S. honor Article 5?
15:00 - How should the West respond to a potential Russian attack?
17:30 - Russia as a threat to the West
19:33 - U.S. midterm elections
21:39 - Trump's response to criticism

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