US-Russia diesel deal would likely help Russia more than the US: Analysis

US President Donald Trump says he has spoken with Russian President Vladimir Putin about increasing diesel supplies to the global market. He posted that Russia will immediately supply over 300,000 tons, then 500,000 in November and 1 million after, then 3 million. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy condemned the deal, calling it “an investment in war”.

Al Jazeera’s Manuel Rapalo, reporting from Washington, DC, says the deal could be significant, with fuel prices soaring before the midterms. But it is unclear how quickly shipments will arrive, how much will go to the US, and whether Russia can meet the commitments given its refining limits.

Trump signed sanctions last month targeting Russia’s oil revenue, so the deal appears a striking reversal, drawing criticism mostly from Democrats.

Glenn Carle, a US national security specialist and former CIA officer, says the deal is largely hollow. He says US refineries are already near full capacity, Russian refining has been badly hit by Ukrainian strikes, and any change at the pump would be 5 to 15 cents a gallon, six months away at best.

He says the real effect would be a financial lifeline to Russia’s struggling economy and war effort.

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