Putin’s obsession with Ukraine is costing Russia influence elsewhere | Hanna Notte

Russia’s war against Ukraine is often framed as a conflict over territory and sovereignty. But the stakes are far broader.

“What is Vladimir Putin’s ideological obsession with Ukraine and with the idea that Ukraine is not an independent nation (...) is not just about Ukraine. This is ultimately a contestation over global order,” Hanna Notte, Eurasia Program Director at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, told TVP World. “This is Russia wanting to claim a veto over the European security architecture. It is about returning as a great power to the international stage, shaping a global order, and therefore also about projecting power into other parts of the world.”

“What is also a reality, though, is that precisely because of Russia’s obsession with prosecuting the war against Ukraine, Russia's power projection into other regions has actually suffered to some extent,” with other powers having expanded their role in regions such as the Middle East and the South Caucasus.

“And of course, the most important factor to mention here is that because of this confrontation with the West, Russia is also becoming more and more dependent on China,” she said. “And that may also weaken Russia’s strategic position in the long term.”

And while Moscow initially hoped that a second Trump presidency would deliver Ukraine to Russia on a silver platter, that did not materialize. In fact, the U.S. encroached on what Russia considered its sphere of influence.

“And of course, what has also happened in the meantime is that the Europeans have further emancipated themselves from the U.S. administration, have stepped up their own support for Ukraine,” Notte said. “So I think the balance sheet from this Trump administration for Russia is a mixed balance sheet at best.”

Join TVP World’s Paweł Trzaskowski and his guest as they explore whether Russia can sustain its war effort, why Moscow is escalating hybrid attacks against Europe, and whether it has underestimated European support for Kyiv.

Chapters:
00:00 Russia’s strategy to outlast Ukraine and the West
02:58 The costs Russia is willing to bear
05:21 Russia’s global ambitions after the elections
07:55 Comparing Russian and U.S. visions of world order

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