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Following visits by Donald Trump’s envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Moscow and Kyiv, Kushner described a potential Russia–Ukraine peace deal as a “win-win” scenario. Is such a resolution of the conflict even possible?
“A win for one side is a loss to the other. There’s no real possibility of a ‘win-win’,” Stuart Dowell, TVP World’s Political Editor, said. “A win for Russia would not simply be to make an additional small gain in Donetsk. They might pause this stage of the war after gaining that in a possible negotiation. But I think most analysts believe that this would only be a pause.”
He added that Putin has made clear he ultimately wants Ukraine under Moscow’s control and NATO pushed back, allowing Russia to rebuild its sphere of influence in Central and Eastern Europe.
Dowell believes only a “strategic defeat” could force Putin to seek terms. Russia’s failure to win the war is already a setback, he argued, but much greater pressure, potentially including unrest triggered by mobilization, would be needed.
“And it’s only something like that that would persuade Putin that continuing the war is not in his advantage,” Dowell said. “And even the specter of collapse of his regime and a large strategic defeat would possibly lead to something like that.”
Join News in Depth host Klaudia Czerwińska and her guest as they explore whether renewed diplomacy can deliver even a limited ceasefire, how Moscow and Kyiv are competing to shape the White House’s view of the peace process, and whether Washington’s reduced focus on Europe creates opportunities for Russia that it may be unable to exploit.
Chapters:
00:00 Trump-Putin call and is there anything to expect from peace talks?
02:47 Can there be a “win-win” to the conflict? The role of Witkoff and Kushner
05:50 Russia’s strategic objectives and the conditions for peace
09:00 How Zelenskyy deals with Washington and pressure on Ukraine
12:25 The need for the U.S. to start punishing Russian aggression
14:46 Ukraine’s air defense shortages ahead of winter
17:15 NATO’s eastern flank and the risk carried by U.S. disengagement
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