Sleep timer ended
⏪ 10s
⏩ 10s
1.1K views
2 days ago
A study has estimated rising sea levels will cost Australia $855 billion, with property owners on the coast warned insurance premiums could become exorbitant. T…
...more
<br>• 23 centimetres since year-1900;
<br>• 11 centimetres since year-1993;
<br>• 9 centimetres since year-2000.
<br>
<br>Per the World Meteorological Organization report titled 𝘚𝘵𝘢𝘵𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘎𝘭𝘰𝘣𝘢𝘭 𝘊𝘭𝘪𝘮𝘢𝘵𝘦 2023, in Figure 6, the rate of global mean SLR, based on satellite altimetry data, was:<br>
<br>• 2.13 mm/year decadal mean for the period Jan 1993 to Dec 2002;
<br>• 3.33 mm/year decadal mean for the period Jan 2003 to Dec 2012;
<br>• 4.77 mm/year decadal mean for the period Jan 2014 to Dec 2023;
<br>with an acceleration rate of 0.12 ± 0.05 mm/year².<br><br>Global sea level rose faster than expected in 2024, mostly because of ocean thermal expansion. According to a NASA-led analysis, year-2024’s rate of rise was 0.23 inches (0.59 centimetres) per year.<br><br>In 2025, the global mean sea level rose by only 0.03 inches (0.08 cm or less than 1 mm), significantly lower than the long-term average rate, largely due to temporary La Niña conditions that temporarily shifted water from the oceans onto land.
<br>
<br>The long-term trend indicates the rate of global mean sea level rise is demonstrably getting faster and faster.<br><br>The Earth System is already committed to more than 20 metres of sea level rise, albeit over a multi-century to millennia timeframe. Humanity will need to cool down Earth to save our coastlines.
<br>
<br>Glaciologist Professor Dr Jason Box suggests that by 2050, 40 centimetres of sea level rise above the year-2000 baseline is his best guess, and by 2100; 150 centimetres.
<br>
<br>I would not be at all surprised to see the rate of global mean sea level rise accelerate further, from 5.9 mm/year in 2024 to 10 mm/year sometime in the 2030s, and double further to 20 mm/year before 2050. That likely equates to 40 to 50 centimetres of sea level rise relative to the year-2000 baseline by 2050, and multi-metre sea level rise before the end of this century.<br><br>With a "super El Niño" still months away from peaking, its impact on global weather will intensify through the back half of 2026, including in Australia, raising the prospect of our hottest spring (and summer) on record and a heightened risk of drought and fires.<br>
<br>Will the annual rate of global mean SLR for year-2026 exceed the year-2024 record of 5.9 mm/year? We'll see soon.<br>
<br>With year-2027 forecast to be even hotter than year-2026, at around +1.70 °C (according to James Hansen and colleagues), will the annual rate of global mean SLR be even higher? Perhaps around 7 mm/year? We'll see...<br><br>Recent scientific studies suggest once the rate of sea level rise reaches about 10 mm/year, standard protection measures like sea walls or beach nourishment fail to keep pace with chronic inundation.<br><br>Are the reported estimates that SLR "threatens more than a quarter of a million properties" by 2100 manifestly inadequate?