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Inflation is persistent, debt is high, interest rates are rising and questions linger over whether artificial intelligence will result in a world-changing produ…
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You cant undo dollar devaluation. So it doesn't matter what happens, any downturn is momentary.
He's wrong about AI, it's much more than what he's describing. I know people who use Claude and other AI systems for their businesses, they are using it all day and are doing work in hours that would have taken weeks. They're also using agents to do work that they would have otherwise hired people for. People and businesses who are tech-savvy are getting great results out of it.
we should punish them this time
Seem to remember a Melbourne writers festival I attended a decade ago where he called it.
"celebrated fiascos" is such excellent language to describe some of these things.
A cabal runs America today. I don't give a damn.....is their moto.
Such a great chat.
Trump will blame the Dems for the resulting disaster - because they won't go along (like his Rep sheep did) and thus become the fall guys.....as is the GOP's favourite model. That's the only thing predictable about America today.
<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fd0ZCw1ZVNE&t=968">16:08</a> Large Language Models, not "Learning", that's not the only thing that's new, theres diffusion, which can generate images, video and text. There's also new architecture optimisations being developed constantly.<br>Data centres pay back much quicker than other investments like home batteries or network scale batteries.<br>The hardware (data centres) are not software, (AI) Which hasn't IPOed yet for the leaders , Anthropic and OpenAI. Google, Meta, Space X AI, are ticking along just fine creating AI.<br>Satyajit Das first said "AI Bubble" in November 2025, since then we've seen huge improvements in AI Agentic abilities.<br>I don't know about bonds and inflation like Das, but I think his knowledge about AI and forecasting it is not sufficient to back his claims.<br>2027 well see GPT7 and GPT8. Having played with ML years ago won't help you forcast how impactful those models will be on productivity and GDP, around the world.<br>-Ken
I take it no matter what we do with our super the effects will still be felt.
The debt problem started long before the GFC.
Climate change is fake. You lost me at that point. Bye.
over investment in something that isn't worth the salt
They arent funded by debt. They are funded by equity. So they are invesments.
Very good analysis.
Excellent interview, thanks!
This is all very well to explain, but how can people protect themselves somewhat? As a retiree who has to live off superannuation for the next 30 years, and feeling I have little control over how this pot of money is exposed to this potential disaster, it is very frightening. Please don’t frighten us without some helpful suggestions about protecting our money.
Dump your $$$$ , the end is nigh
History doesnt repeat, it rhymes
We should be getting better at this stuff we have all the tools this day n age
traditional financial market as we know is becoming irrelevant with advent of technology. gone are days of making value from financial transactions, leveraging, over-exposing, forex etc. even double entry ledger is becoming obsolete.
What I don't get is they spend 800b on data centres but the revenue is nowhere near that. Maybe 10% the Capex. Who is going to continue to lend them money when the equipment only last 5 years.
<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fd0ZCw1ZVNE&t=612">10:12</a> “kindness of strangers” no debt or bond purchase is out of kindness.
What if AI & Robots pay off the debt. AI is real, it is not a gaint code, it is weights, it will get exceptionally smarter and it will stay.
It'll all be clear in retrospect: energy inflation, a bond crisis, an AI bubble, war, famine and pestilence, but what's the chance all of these bullets will be dodged?
If the AI bubble bursts, won’t everything with chips get cheaper due to reduced demand (due to reduced data centre competition). <br><br>So cheaper laptops, phones, cars, TVs, washing machines etc…
Energy prices are higher than they need to be in Australia because of the mindless net zero ideology.
Why do we get to comment on this ABC interview. Anything that an informed public might be able to influence comments are turn off. I hate my ABC.
All currencies are toilet paper.
ABC should stick to television, the podcast space isn’t for you guys. You had your chance to tell the truth during Covid and chose to spout government propaganda to which the podcast space flourished. Do not trust the ABC. Get your news from other news media! For example, Nuggets news, David Lin, Mario Narfall, Breaking points, TYT, Stew peters NetworkBloomberg.
Unfortunately the economist lost all credibility when they said the government only had TWO ways to address the short fall, (a) spend less & (b) print money. I was unable to see the concept of (c) "Tax the Rich". and prefers precursors to hyper inflation (money printing) that the concept of taxing his clients is alien to him, and as such he is unable to evaluate the relative merits of an option vs something he is unable to see (or admit to seeing)
🤔🍋
Anybody who has worked with AI knows it has Utility, but it is nowhere near what it being promised. Additionally Nvidia is IMHO doing shady financial games just like what happened in the dot-kaboom bubble.<br>As for the bond markets, there's been such a transfer of wealth to the 1% that states and workers cannot pay any more. There's more, but you can thank neoliberalism and regulatory capture for most of this.
i think the problem discussion was important, but what about the solution discussion, thats where i'd like to see the next session go. and even some unsolicited options for how people might navigate the realisation of the event.
There is no way we aren't seeing interest rates by end of 2028 lower than 6% lol...
I cannot fathom how they will recoup the money on the AI infrastructure let alone it's ongoing running costs and maintenance. It seems there are a lot of people playing musical chairs with very few chairs!
Wheel out Das to scare the people. Ever sceptical, ever paranoid, the poor man’s Taleb
It’s a rich man’s game that will impact all of us. So many have their retirements in the market. The masses are told to just keep investing no matter what. They are funding the market, and sitting ducks at the same time.
I am very happy that, even though this is a video call, you have at least both got good microphones and are using headphones. It annoys me so much when a big TV station can’t look as good as a new twitch streamer who bought a few things from EB Games.
won't AI just make these economists irrelevant ? If just one economist predicts a worldwide crash.....
Best watched at 1.25x speed at YouTube. You're Welcome!😀
<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fd0ZCw1ZVNE&t=1195">19:55</a> “the most successful piece of software that I’m aware of” may be limited to consumer desktop software. I’d look to corporate settings like Salesforce, Atlassian, I mean even Meta and X are just making software and selling “software as a service” even if they’re not marketing it as that?
All good to say relying on SE Asia is cheaper, until the global economy farts and then we take a hit. It's cheaper, until its not! It's selling out security for the now and that isn't working anymore
This is excellent. Thank you
AI does have its uses in terms of communicating between city and regions for essential services (health, education). <br><br>AI and many other systems for essential services need to be heavily regulated and nationalised.
<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fd0ZCw1ZVNE&t=945">15:45</a> wow that’s a pretty great summing up of decades of AI progress in just 45 seconds!!
Fear mongering 101. <br><br>Let’s scare everyone. The world is ending. If i guess the world is ending every year, eventually i will be right.
Great interview 👏👏👏
In 2009 the Western World should have let their banks fail, yes we would have had a severe recession, but we would have recovered by now. Instead they printed money for years ... it's all finally coming home to roost!
Great to hear from this guy! Remember he basically tapped out of commentary when Europe started negative interest rates because it’s literally crazy.
My only prediction when Trump won in 2024 was “inflation”. We hadn’t even finished the flow-on effects from Covid yet.<br><br>Now if this was on purpose then what would that mean? CO2 levels keep going up steadily. It leads to division and despair. Who benefits?
"Cedar realities?" What's trees have to do with all this??
And how many Ai data centres are we getting in Oz 160? No one wants this but Albo says, we need to get on board with this investment (collapse). While we've waited 5 years for them to build a single social house. These politicians are killing us, why shouldn't we get them before they get us????
Trump bankrupted 6 casinos, he's about to add Countries to his list of achievements lol.
Claims to be close to AI > Calls Large Language Models "Large Learning Models"
Who still believes these crises are just a coincidence? These financial boom bust cycles are made on purpose so those at the top get richer and those below lose more if not everything. These corrupt politicians are working for this globalist banking cartel. This guy wants to try and fix a system that is corrupt by its very nature.
You know cutting spending isn't the only option. We can tax wealth
As they say with these finance guys.. a broken clock is right twice a day. <br>Professor Steve Keene has it for it wrong more times than he got it right.
Will Japanese and Chinese debt sink the economy world wide
Great informative interview of an intellact ABC
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is the LUXURY that Australia can’t afford. If Australia has deemed that a Nuclear Power industry is not required, why should it have all the problems associated with AI data centres, for example water and electricity usage?
This was a great watch, especially that we have never recovered from the gfc, it’s like how I pretend I don’t have credit card and mortgage dept and hoping that one day it goes away.
People like Gregory Manarino have been warning about this for decades, this is ponzi system controlled by a oligarchy. All your experts are all in on it too as to is the main stream media.
Excellent analysis thank you.
damn these guys are late to the party. everyone was shorting tech months ago.
Sounds like the ABC replaced their audio engineers with AI chatbots.
Great interview. Agree on basically most points.
So AI is just another scam.
Would be nice if all levels of gov stopped adding to inflation by running big deficits. Only WA is running a surplus
You guys never factor in the military option , and no that has nothing to do with targeting 'bond traders'. <br><br>When you understsnd the military option, you know why the valuations don't math out, But you also know it doesn't matter. <br><br>Learning about the Fuggars is a good example of what happens when when bond traders get too big for their britches. <br><br>Maybe the Knights Templar as an example of when merchants take on Sovereigns. <br><br>I know where this ends. But we can never know how the dynamics play out exactmy, but the end game is very obvious, and the infrastructure being build now is the key stone, so price is no object.
"This could flow on to the real economy" is pretty telling. Yeah it turns out making pretty borders on your cafe flyer wasn't an integral part of the economy, who knew
When AI and shady private lending fail, Australian superannuation funds will go bankrupt. "You will have nothing and still be happy". Opening an SMSF and purchasing gold bullion bars instead of coins, as coins are more susceptible to confiscation.
Nice work Albo. Aussie 10 yr bonds @ 5.22% , highest in developed world.
whats with the interviewer? is this the best ABC has to offer? What an unlikeable person, and smirking throughout. Hopefully our government wakes up and realises the ABC is cooked.
You lost me at Trumps two most favorite things: War, that is a load of crap you fool, Trump does a lot of things wrong, but you are cleary have TD if you think he loves war, you loose all credabilty coming out with shit like that
The AI boom is a solution looking for a problem to solve.
The whole system is speculation and fake money that doesn't exist, its a merry go round of true believers that know unless they show total faith The merry go round stops.
But Jim flation just said a couple of days ago that the Australian economy is "Robust and resilient"<br><br>There you have it!...Jim flation gas lighting the Australian population.. yet again!<br><br>The lies and rhetoric coming from Albanese and Jim flation is fast becoming a threat to our democracy and is outright dangerous and divisive!
The global economy is walking a tightrope. It desperately needs the AI boom to quickly deliver massive, productivity gains to help "grow" our way out of this mountain of debt. If AI fails to deliver those gains quickly enough, the weight of high interest rates and debt refinancing will severely strain global markets. Tech companies are running out of cash from company profit and are starting to compete with governments for investors. When AI companies flood the market with highly rated corporate bonds, they compete directly with government treasuries for investor cash. Investors only have so much money to lend; if they choose to buy high-yielding AI tech debt, they buy fewer government bonds. That is the crunch point we are facing. AI ROI isn't enough to fund the tech growth so they must borrow by issuing corporate bonds.
the interest rates are difficult to compare across generations, given the changes in the cost of housing.
We are in a worse position than most countries.<br> poorly governed is one of those reasons but that has been the case for some time.<br> our reliance on globalism is the main issue, if China has the expected crash we are affected instantly and dramatically. Europe is a disaster and I don't think America can survive either. the reset that they plan will collapse with Europe leaving us with what?.<br> Credit and oil crisis but more importantly famine. I like metal even if it goes down a bit it will be the last man standing and the first to raise his hand through the ashes
This guy seems a bit clueless about the current state of the art in AI.
Apathy should become anti capitalist movement. A capitalist economic collapse every 5-7 years,how much can you take, and how are you going to explain this to the next generation?
I feel so worn down by paying for US Imperial wars. An Australian government media release in June of this year said Australia’s overall funding for the war against Russia in Ukraine was $1.8 billion so far, including more than $1.6 billion in military assistance since the start of the conflict. Moreover, each and every Australian, and the entire world population, is also paying through the nose for that war due to its effect on inflation.<br>Now the US has added to that the energy/petrol price increases and massive inflationary pressure of its hegemonic war against Iran.<br>Now the weight of even this looks to be dwarfed by the US once again crashing the global economy.
Well his cult voted for him, partly because they wanted him to run America like one of his businesses, so in a way, that's one promise he's kept, at least. Pity the rest of us will have to pay as well
Historically, crashes happened rather suddenly and there were few who warned that it would happen. Today, everybody is concerned and there are many warnings which basically means that the risks are priced in already ...
Wonder what all the super fund managers are doing?
Great! Coherent and easy to understand.
Its likely to be a painful gradual melt up as obfuscated methods of debt monetization and real losses slowly trickles into the wider economy
All the doomsayers, but Dow is record high.
It's a short time......now go short! Short anything!
A global economy built on scams and bubbles. The finacial sector must be regulated!!!!
This guy hasn't used AI recently, he thinks it's a sophisticated search engine.
Not sure why I bother listening to these priests of the modern age, of the dismal science.<br><br>Wasting my life.
Nah it was all Y2K that can be blamed for everything 😅
If the ABC start talking about something: you know it’s gonna happen because the elite want it to. The elite are ready for the reset.
Sobering interview. Feel for the people carrying a lot of debt. So much of our super is now tied up in AI infrastructure, at some stage there are going to be a lot of people get hurt, big time, and there's not many places to hide.
<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fd0ZCw1ZVNE&t=1316">21:56</a>
Trump wants lower rates yet every action he has taken does nothing but increase inflationary pressures. Truly the stupidest president the world has ever seen.
Great interview. Thank you.
GDay - Planet Earth & Humanity as whole shouldn't be burdened with Trillions of US Debt...
Absolutely right, we never paid the debt of the GFC just ignored it
The difference this time is because US oligarchs own and control banks , equity funds and together with Trump billionaire cartel would not allow the market to collapse <br>They knew the consequences so they control it with well planned risk management <br><br>Iran war would had crashed Wall Street months ago but it was anticipated and markets shielded not by 1 or 2 billionaire but a huge group of powerful oligarchs working in sync.<br>If Trump or Republican loses Congress Senate then the leaks and gradual selling may start<br><br>It all depends on the billionaire cartel not the traditional economic theories or fundamentals<br><br>This cartel also profit hugely on bond yields rises, they have fingers all over the world, and bring this high interest yields to support their shares investments<br>You see the record after record NASDAQ Wall street despite what global economist had forecasted for months😢
This time next year variable rates will be 8%+
GriftOn! Pump and dump and repeat! Love It!
The scary thing is there is a generation who thinks the current interest rates are "high". Look at the US 10 year interest rate from 1981 ...
Unscrambling this AI omelette will be nigh impossible
Seriously, I'm going to start screenshotting my comments here and complaining via email to ABC complaints if you keep deleting my comments just because you don't like them, not because they violate the terms. You are a public broadcaster, not a private entity!!! I encourage anyone else to do so. I have screenshotted this comment. if it disappears, I will be complaining. You delete my comments just for having an opinion that differs from your "Experts"
Low rates have become an indicator of an unhealthy economy to me. Maybe im insane but rates were never this low on aberage back in the day, And it coincides with the timing of the insane stratification of the economy. That isnt a coincidence either the lower rates incentivise exactly that. We should never lower rates again 😂
At least Trump will still be in power when all this shit hits the fan and all the blame can be stacked on his head
<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fd0ZCw1ZVNE&t=1370">22:50</a> — the same thing that happened in 2006-08
Come on our Government won't tax corporation correctly or go after those that owe tax & then won't enforce competition.... Its nothing but take, take, take from the Aussie people <br>& that same story is the same around the world. The super rich lobbying governments (bribing) to lower taxes to increase profit share & decrease competition in their market = FUBAR
War, climate, AI.<br>Not to mention if quantum computing over-rides chips.<br>GFC inevitable. All bubbles burst, and the poorest are left holding the ball.
The world needs a stable global financial system. Australia must stop being so myopic about its future and try to join BRICS. When the US began using its central position in the current and still global financial system to confiscate the wealth of countries it particularly disliked, the message was that its days as THE global system were numbered - a system that cannot be trusted cannot remain the pre-eminent system in the long term.
I would earn a modest but above average income. It was probably that last pay rise that I noticed my pay rise was not enough to cover two rises in my home insurance premium and private health premium. <br>I'm not great at tracking spend on groceries but I'm sure I'm getting shafted there too. It's kind of demoralising to be going backwards. I wish Trump would reign in his war and American debt.
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The US will probably print their way out of this Bond mess as usual.<br>Everything is on shakey ground with Trump's political interference.
Google spends 800B a year to make 20B. treasury bonds are a better investment.
118 Comments
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